At the International Exhibit of 1884 in London, Sir Francis Galton’s curiosity was piqued by a weight-judging competition, in which contestants guessed the weight of an ox to be “butchered and dressed.” About eight hundred people tried their luck at sixpence a ticket. Experts and non-experts alike competed.
Galton, a Victorian polymath, was not so much interested in the competition itself as he was in the collective prediction of the participants. He had set out to prove that there would be no significance to the crowd’s guess, believing as he did that a few dumb people would certainly lead the crowd to a dumb answer. But the result was surprising. On average, the crowd as a whole predicted the ox weighed 1,197 pounds. Butchered and dressed, the ox actually weighed 1,198 pounds. The average was closer than the guess of any individual contestant.
Galton’s impromptu experiment was early support for the view that the aggregation of information for a group results in decisions that are better than the decision of any single member of the group. Today, thanks to technology, this theory is being tested over and over again.
Intrade is an online trading exchange, founded ten years ago in Dublin, that allows individuals to bet on a wide range of outcomes involving future non-sporting events. Intrade participants, taken as a whole, accurately predicted not only the result of the 2012 Presidential Election, but also the results in each state save Florida, which was given a 69% probability of going to Mitt Romney. In fact, Intrade’s predictions of the outcomes of the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections were just as accurate. But how does Intrade really work?
Basically, on the Intrade platform, all events are defined by a “yes” or “no” propositions with a final share price of $10.00 for a “yes” outcome and a final share price of $0.00 for a “no” outcome. The share price fluctuates with the opinion of participants. The Intrade odds on Rick Perry’s winning the Republican nomination fell by 50% during a primary debate only seconds after he forgot the federal department he wanted to eliminate. When you buy shares, you are betting “yes” the event will occur, and when you sell shares, you are betting “no” the event will not occur. The contract may trade in the range of 1-100, where 1 equals $0.10 in value. Because all shares are bought and sold within this range, a participant may either profit or lose at “settlement,” depending on what the share price was when it was bought or sold.
Intrade, the CFTC argued in a complaint filed in a federal court, is taking bets on commodity options (like the prices of gold, crude oil and other things) without listing the contracts on a regulated exchange. Offering commodity option contracts to US customers for trading as well as soliciting, accepting and confirming the execution of orders violate of the Commodity Exchange Act’s ban on off-exchange options trading. Intrade, having been in the CFTC’s crosshairs for several years now, finally decided to shut down its platform to the US market this past November. As of December 23rd, all US Intrade accounts (which comprised approximately 40 percent of all its accounts) have been suspended.
Does Intrade fall within the CFTC’s jurisdiction? A prediction market through which customers buy and sell binary options allowing them to predict whether a future event will happen certainly appears to be within the purview of the Commodity Exchange Act, which regulates a broad range of transactions–futures, swaps, options on futures, swaps and commodities–in connection with commodities, property and events.
But the real question is whether the CFTC should exercise its jurisdiction. A similar prediction market run by the University of Iowa, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), operates pursuant to a CFTC no-action letter. It is largely for academic and research purposes and caps bets at $500, but real bets are being made utilizing IEM every day. Evidently, even the CFTC sees some utility in prediction markets.
Galton wrote several years after his experiment, “I know of scarcely anything so apt to impress the imagination as the wonderful form of cosmic order expressed by the law of error. The huger the mob and the greater the anarchy, the more perfect is its sway. Let a large sample of chaotic elements be taken and marshalled in order of their magnitudes, and then, however wildly irregular they appeared, an unexpected and most beautiful form of regularity proves to have been present all along.”